All charts are from or will soon be coming to checkonchain.com
Chit Chat is a project I’m a part of and equally excited about. The goal of the platform is simple: connect information seekers and providers with minimum friction. Currently compatible with both fiat and crypto for payment. Anons welcome to use it as well!
My public calendar if you want to connect one-on-one is here.
The longer price action goes sideways, the more I find myself zooming in to figure out what’s going on. Chart above shows that $33k is the midpoint of price action over the past month. Something to watch going into the weekend.
While price goes sideways, so does PnL realization on-chain. Very little conviction either way here.
Realized PnL per coin has gone back to stable after the rinsing on 6/25 of -23%. Some people are looking for a huge wick down, followed by a reversal upwards out of this range - that print *might* signal those bullets have already been used.
Rolling 30-day returns still can’t crack back into positive territory. Might be some signal on an early positive print.
Fear & Greed Index still sitting in the 20s. A quiet move back above 40 (similar to early 2019 bottom) would be a signal worth watching for.
While we bear-crab, coins continue to get pulled off exchanges. In this regard March 2020 and onwards has truly been a new paradigm for Bitcoin. Basically any inflows this whole run up has been bad news.
If you’re looking for cavalry, you will not find them in stablecoins unfortunately. However, this fall off is mostly due to…
Tether printer is brrrroken. Zero clue what’s going on behind the scenes, but still speculating it’s China related.
Prior to the emergence of DeFi, USDC transactional dominance did a good job at signaling bottoms. Since then it’s the norm, and continues to be so. Big spikes here would be worth paying attention to.
Despite the pitiful showing on the stablecoin printing front, prints are still greater than the cumulative PnL of BTC holders over the past 7 days. Historically a good time to buy from a macro perspective.
The title of this chart speaks for itself. Rare activity (i.e. large amounts of coins moved) on a per block basis has frequently coincided with incoming / ending volatility. A print here with some price action as context is something I’m closely eyeing.
Now a few altcoin charts..
ETH sitting right below the $1 / byte stored price. This chart signals what is already self-evident: we’re either mid bull cycle or next move down is gonna sting. ETH historically bottoms around $0.15 / byte.
DCR still trading above its realized prices in both the DCRBTC and DCRUSD pairs. Convincing moves below usually signal the beginning of a long, painful road. For now this data leans bullish.
That’s it for today - stay bullish.
PB Banter 7-16-2021
Thanks for this, appreciate the analysis!