All charts are from or will soon be coming to checkonchain.com
Alright dudes it’s been a minute so I’m gonna do a blend of PB Banter and a Thinking Out Loud piece. Few charts to focus on current market, and then a few to focus on Elon’s pet project, DOGE.
Price action stinks, pure chop with no end in sight. That’s not the topic for today though - I want to focus on how much pressure this market is under. Indicator at the bottom of the chart shows exhibit A, which shows the premium / discount of spot vs perps. Since we landed in this range perp prices have sat below spot pretty consistently. Pressure from derivatives: check.
We’ve had multiple instances of large realized loss prints in this range. Underwater bagholders laying on the pressure as well, and in size.
Stablecoin prints over the past month have dried up. There are obviously non-stablecoin ways to get cash into market, so needs to be taken with a grain of salt. This is mostly due to…
USDT prints have completely dried up, likely has something to do with the Chinese crypto ban.
So, we have pressure from derivatives, underwater buyers, and *arguably* a demand shock on the stablecoin front. Just food for thought today. Now onto DOGE…
DOGE’s realized PnL prints are insane. The two largest prints from this run up have been $3-$4 Billion. If you refer back to the Bitcoin PnL chart earlier on, these are comparable to Bitcoin’s largest profit-taking prints. You can also see that DOGE’s realized price is $0.14 - something to monitor if this is in fact a blow off top.
Here’s a look at realized PnL prints on an adjusted basis. On the biggest moves up during this bull, DOGE’s Realized Cap increased by more than 200%. The standard for previous bull runs was around 50% in a week.
Here is DOGE’s value per byte comparison vs BTC, ETH, and ADA. Values for each are:
BTC: $1.78
ETH: $0.98
ADA: $5.06 (not a typo)
DOGE: $0.72
Calc for this is simple: Market Cap divided by blockchain size. Shows how much value each byte is storing. Ideally, the higher value the better. But in practice this is not the case - higher values have historically signaled froth. Other than saying this, I just wanted to point at the fact that DOGE is among the big boys now.
Should be interesting to monitor DOGE moving forward, loads of profit-taking, high cost bases for current holders (on average), and a high valuation on a per byte basis (and absolute basis depending on your POV).
That’s all for today, happy 4th to the Americans among the ranks.
Stay bullish,