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Nervy week in the digital corn market. After printing new daily lows, we’ve sprung back above $30k again. Two things shown on the indicators in the chart:
Asset Return % Z-Score: On the “spring” candle of 7/21, we had a statistically strong print upwards. Historically this has been useful in identifying impulse candles in uptrends / downtrends to signal trend continuation. In this case, I’m watching it for a potential reversal.
Asset Return % (30-Day): Cryptocurrencies are trend-heavy assets, and tracking returns over 30 days is a simple way to see when the trend is no longer your friend. Note that the vertical lines in the chart show dates where these last flipped positive / negative. Still waiting on a convincing green print here.
Fear and Greed Index printed a 10 at the lows this week. Sounds like everyone was ringing the bear alarms at the same time, not the best time to sell your coins historically.
One of the biggest surprises of the week was that nobody puked on this slow bleed down. On previous legs down in this range you can see that we had some massive red prints. Some potential signal there.
Realized Cap / Price is flattening out, which provides an opportunity for the 14-Day Market Realized Gradient to flip back into green territory. The way this tool works:
Green: Bull - means Market Cap is increasing faster than Realized Cap, which implies price is going up faster than people are taking profits
Red: Bear - means Realized Cap is increasing faster than Market Cap, which implies people are taking profits faster than price is going up
Keep track of this tool - it’s (in my humble opinion) one of the highest signal trend-trading tools out there. Now let’s flip this green.
180-Day Realized Z-Score is used to identify large impulses in on-chain profit taking. Consistently low values tend to occur during bears, so for now this metric would have me cautious. However - more than anything else I like this tool for helping me figure out when screaming BTFD or GTFO moments are taking place. If we get another leg up / down, expecting this to print big.
Turbulence in the mining market seems to have subsided, and all the evidence can be found in block times. After a long road of painfully long block times we have finally mean reverted. Gotta love that difficulty adjustment.
ETHBTC showing some strength recently, which has had me second-guessing where the most strength will be coming from in the case of a full on bullish market reversal. ETH currently up ~8% on a rolling 30-Day basis vs BTC. Last time this happened was early April, which ended up paying with >2x gains. With this in mind, other pairs that are in the positive on a 30-Day basis:
DEFIPERP
DEFIPERP / BTC
DEFIPERP / ETH
Oh and also, can’t forget ETHUSD
Time to pay extra attention around these parts. Now, before signing off I’ll leave some food for thought with an old tweet:
Signing out - stay bullish.
PB Banter 7-23-2021
Right now we're at almost everyone is an idiot, a few are smart...a small improvement but long way to go yet...great data! Only a few coins I track have green trend now....