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I normally kick these write ups off with a price chart from tradingview, but today I want to look at something that’s top of mind: some realized PnL data. There’s speculation that internal exchange movements might have impacted some of yesterday’s numbers, but instead lets be cautious and use this as an opportunity to present a conservative case while we sit at $40k resistance.
PnL prints over the past 4 days have been:
$1.66 Billion
$2.75 Billion
$1.74 Billion
$4.4 Billion
This is a lot of in-profit coins being moved here (particularly yesterday’s figure). Frankly, it’s more than I expected at $40k. If these flows are indeed legitimate, I would argue $40k is THE key level to break for us to get back to new ATHs.
All in, we’ve had $10 Billion in profits taken this week. As you can see - we’d had quite the wind down since the beginning of the year.
All of these large PnL prints have caused the 180-Day Realized Z-Score to exit consolidation. Stay tuned here.
If the print from yesterday isn’t exchange related, coins moved were done so at an estimated ~47% profit on average ($27.2k cost basis).
I’ll wait a few days to see if there’s any revision here, but I’ll admit these numbers make me a little nervous if they stand as is.
However - the trend has been up over the past week, so let’s talk about that a bit.
Market Realized Gradient (14-Day) flipped green 7/25 at ~$35k and remains bull. Note that this takes into account our profit-taking discussion above, so that’s certainly encouraging. Why? Because it signals the market is absorbing profit-taking. Demand outpacing supply by sending price higher and faster than these holders can cash out is unmistakably bullish.
Fear & Greed Index climbed above 40 for the first time in months.
Hold above: bullish
Move below: potential deadcat bounce
3 notes from this chart:
Heikin Ashi candles are green = trending bullish
Perps P/D = spot still trading above perps on average, bullish
Coinbase P/D = Coinbase spot still trading above other exchanges on average, bullish (note that during the bear market there were LONG periods where this was the other way around)
2 notes from this chart:
GBTC still trading at a ~9% discount, note that it flipped to discount at the top
30-Day returns for BTCUSD has been green since 7/25 and currently sits at 12%
To close things out - realized PnL prints have me nervous short term, but the trend has been up. Until the trend starts flipping bear, I’m taking the realized PnL prints with a grain of salt.
Bearish momentum could be signaled with:
Market Realized Gradient flipping red
Fear & Greed below 40
Daily Heikin Ashi flipping red
30-Day Returns flipping red
Until then…
Stay bullish,