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Chit Chat is a project I’m a part of and equally excited about. The goal of the platform is simple: connect information seekers and providers with minimum friction. Currently compatible with both fiat and crypto for payment. Anons welcome to use it as well!
My public calendar if you want to connect one-on-one is here.
As we enter another weekend of summer (depending where you live), we have BTC showing continued signs of life. Price is up ~20% on a rolling 30-day basis, and regulatory FUD is in the fair. All things considered, price has looked pretty resilient.
Let’s zoom in for a second. This chart has 2 indicators:
Top: BTCPERP on FTX vs BTCUSDTPERP on Binance. Green shows an FTX premium vs Binance and viceversa.
Bottom: BTCUSD on Coinbase vs other large exchanges. Green shows a Coinbase premium and viceversa
I find myself more and more frequently asking “who do I want to be long with”, and these charts attempt to answer that. Since FTX’s huge fundraise (at the absolute bottom) the trend has been get long with FTX and fade Binance. As for Coinbase, I’m not going to insult anyone’s intelligence with a long explanation. Coinbase being bid usually leads to good outcomes.
Both FTX / Coinbase have been leading the charge the past few weeks, which has resulted in strong price action. Let’s see how this develops over the next few months.
In last week’s letter I expressed concern over the large amount of profit-taking that was showing up on-chain. After stalling out near $40k for a week, my outlook is much rosier on this front. There are definitely signs of “bullish reflexivity” kicking in by the looks of it. This means:
People selling rips
No interest in selling dips
The chart above shows this is potentially the new regime - see early 2021 for examples of bullish reflexivity showing up on-chain.
Fear & Greed Index bounced off of the 40 area for now, which is bullish.
After months of quiet, we got a $970 Million USDT redemption yesterday. I’m in the dark on everything Tether / China so I unfortunately don’t have much insight here.
NFT mania is in the air, so had to scratch my itch by diving into some data. Takeaways after one day of looking into it:
20,000+ new NFT collections (collections, not individual NFTs) on OpenSea in the past 3 days
50,000+ new NFT collections added to OpenSea in the past 12 days
A TON of them are copycat trash
These things are made to pump / dump insanely hard, and understanding the supply / demand dynamic is probably key to flipping these things during this mania
For example - with CryptoPunks you can see that there’s only 9,999 of them in existence amongst a rapidly expanding universe of other NFTs. This already makes them rare. HOWEVER, there are only ~2,800 unique owners of CryptoPunks - making them even more rare. New money coming in excited about this new artform / trying to make a quick buck, and you have insane mark ups over short periods of time.
Excited to dive more into NFTs, I’m not much of an art guy but find the data / marketplace fascinating. Until then…
Stay bullish,