PB Banter 5-7-2021
"Long your longs"
TLDR: BTC profit taking subsiding, technicals cleaning up, & more “brr” from stablecoins
ANALYSIS:
I’m gonna kick this piece off with the main thought that is running through my head: a uniquely asymmetric opportunity to get long is on the table. From a technical perspective, BTC starting to show some respect to the 30-day 50% web (blue), which is the early sign of a trend developing in my eyes. Some people define an uptrend by higher lows and higher highs, but I define one by just being closer to the highs than the lows over a given time period. That’s what these 50% web lines represent. Also let’s remember that the Difficulty Price (white) is also around $56k too.
So you like the technical set up - how much is it gonna cost to get long?
Funding has spiked a bit - something to monitor. But as far as I’m concerned, we went from $10k - $60k on high funding. Happy to pay if “number go up”.
Now lets take a peek at profit taking - which as we covered in the previous PB Banter, was apparent for most of 2021:
Profit taking has subsided - this is exactly what you want to see. In January we saw a lot of profit taking, and that continued through March. In the short term, large spikes in Realized Cap = Bearish. Why? Because it shows that old coins are moving. We’re not seeing that anymore. Also note that all negative Realized Profit Ratio prints were BTFD opportunities (something to watch moving forward). So when looking at the supply / demand dynamic, supply side is looking the best it has in a while.
Now let’s talk demand via stablecoins:
The stablecoin printer is in full “brr” mode - new ATH in daily stablecoin prints registered this week. $2.4 Billion in fresh fiat.
Looks like the horses are being released from the stables. Loads of stablecoin movement recently with new ATHs being printed with ~$30B daily.
Stable Change Ratio is about the highest it’s ever been, signaling that stablecoin prints over the past month versus BTC Market Cap is overweight towards buyers. Bullish.
That’s it, happy weekend. Stay bullish.